The Costs of a Long War in Ukraine 有典泛泛之談

有典泛泛之談

 .....“Russia will embark on some minor offensive actions in a short period of time,” Macaes summarizes. “A lot of manpower will be lost. After that, it will face a series of significant defeats.” This will lead to Russian unraveling: Major cities will be lost, some kind of military collapse will follow, and then there will be “uncontrolled political transformation” within the Russian Federation itself.

 dilemmas of success: The perils of a desperate Russian nuclear gamble, spillover risks from any internal Russian power struggle and possible dangers from a still-more-nationalist successor regime.

But against those benefits you have to count the extensive costs. A long war maintains the current dangerously elevated risk of NATO-Russia conflict and nuclear brinkmanship indefinitely into the future. 

OPINION

ROSS DOUTHAT

The Costs of a Long War in Ukraine

Feb. 4, 202