蘋論：治國不能事後諸葛
2016年11月12日
須務實認知自己
川普新政對台灣來說，絕對不只是台美關係，而是亞洲、兩岸戰略態勢是否將產生結構變化，台灣的經濟發展將遭遇怎樣的衝擊，這些不僅攸關台灣生存，而且每個議題又環環相扣，交錯連動，在這種大架構變局中，台灣必須謙虛且務實地認知自己角色和影響力，全盤思索未來可能走向。倘若此時仍然只想用比較安心也比較熟悉的邏輯去思考，例如共和黨向來對台友善，或在美國的亞洲戰略下，台灣有無可取代的地位，或是川普終將被體制所馴服，當然，就過去經驗，這些都是對的，對台灣也非常好，但萬一錯了，或川普被馴服的時間比預期晚呢？
錯估川普當選總統與否，只是判斷力的問題，錯估川普政策和意志力，可就是台灣命運的問題。
政府和一般人相同，往往不自覺地抗拒面對自己所不喜歡的情境。可是作為一個負責任的執政者，必須克服這種並不愉快的心理狀態，對於這個即將來臨，連各個大國都感到不安的新局，而台灣所受的衝擊可能又大於許多國家，當然必須作更縝密評估及因應。
錯估川普當選總統與否，只是判斷力的問題，錯估川普政策和意志力，可就是台灣命運的問題。
政府和一般人相同，往往不自覺地抗拒面對自己所不喜歡的情境。可是作為一個負責任的執政者，必須克服這種並不愉快的心理狀態，對於這個即將來臨，連各個大國都感到不安的新局，而台灣所受的衝擊可能又大於許多國家，當然必須作更縝密評估及因應。
應甩開傳統思維
這不是A計劃、B計劃就能打發的狀況，蔡英文政府恐怕要有甩脫傳統制式思維的Y計劃、Z計劃，才足以應付。若最後只用到A計劃，是台灣之福，萬一運氣不好，口袋裡也可掏出Z計劃供討論。
這次美國總統大選給所有人上了一課，認為希拉蕊篤定當選的，都是根據經驗或數據「理性」預測，事先說川普會贏的，大抵都是憑空猜測，結果證明前者大錯，顯然這世界已不是依照多數人視為理所當然的邏輯運行，既然眾人都非智者，就要靠勤補拙了。這不是演習，蔡總統及國安團隊、府院決策體系，務必要進入最高警戒狀態，領導人與政府如果也只會當事後諸葛，就是國家的災難了。
這次美國總統大選給所有人上了一課，認為希拉蕊篤定當選的，都是根據經驗或數據「理性」預測，事先說川普會贏的，大抵都是憑空猜測，結果證明前者大錯，顯然這世界已不是依照多數人視為理所當然的邏輯運行，既然眾人都非智者，就要靠勤補拙了。這不是演習，蔡總統及國安團隊、府院決策體系，務必要進入最高警戒狀態，領導人與政府如果也只會當事後諸葛，就是國家的災難了。
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英文對語？: Cordial Words, easy street 安逸街的熱忱會
Cordial Words After Trump and Obama Meet at White House
Cordial Words After Trump and Obama Meet at White House
The Transition BeginsPresident Obama said he and President-elect Donald J. Trump had an excellent and wide-ranging conversation at the White House on Thursday.
90-Minute Meeting Was a ‘Great Honor,’ Says President-Elect
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS
703 Easy Street by The Collapsable Hearts Club ft. Jim Biano & Petra ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoQ4GidQP-k
4 days ago - Uploaded by VirulentViper
This song plays while Daryl is sleeping in his cell before being woken up by Easy Street blaring. It also plays ...
You can check out the full lyrics to "Easy Street," below — and if you're not done hating yourself, you can also listen to the song.
We're on easy street
And it feels so sweet
'Cause the world is 'bout a treat
When you're on easy street
And we're breaking out the good champagne
We're sitting pretty on the gravy train
And when we sing every sweet refrain repeats
Right here on easy street
It's our moment in the sun
And it's only just begun
It's time to have a little fun
We're inviting you to come and see why you should be
On easy street
Yeah, we got a front row seat
O, to a life that can't be beat
Right here on easy street
It's our moment in the sun
And it's only just begun
It's time to have a little fun
And we're inviting you to come and see why you should be
On easy street
Yeah, we got a front row seat
O, to a life that can't be beat
Right here on easy street
'Cause the world is 'bout a treat
When you're on easy street
'Cause the world is 'bout a treat
When you're on easy street
easy street 喬治高"家在安逸街"：easy street喻"豐衣足食、生活優裕的境界。"
cordial 熱忱的
cordial
ˈkɔːdɪəl/
adjective
- 1.warm and friendly."the atmosphere was cordial and relaxed"
- 2.strongly felt."I earned his cordial loathing"
noun
- 1.BRITISHa sweet fruit-flavoured drink."wine cups and fruit cordials"
synonyms: squash, crush, concentrate
"I often drank water with fruit cordial" - 2.a pleasant-tasting medicine.
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