Yes, China is probably outspending the US in AI—but not on defense

New estimates show how much China’s investments in AI have been overblown.

by Karen Hao

Dec 5, 2019

...As the narrative goes, China is greatly outspending the US not only in total research, but specifically in military AI. If the US does not make aggressive moves to catch up, the country—and democracy—will be doomed.

But new estimates from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) show that China is likely spending far less on AI than previously assumed. Additionally, most of its AI money seems to be going to non-military-related research, such as fundamental algorithm development, robotics research, and smart-infrastructure development. By contrast, the US’s planned spending for fiscal year 2020 allocates the majority of its AI budget to defense, which means it could possibly outspend China in that category. In other words, the numbers directly oppose the prevailing narrative.